UNDERSTANDING THE FIELD

I like to judge based off of a combination of consistency, class and liking for each horse in the field. I read through each horse's personality and racing style in order to get a feel for each horse. Then, I survey each horse's record to get a feel for their consistency and class level. The following is a stream of consciousness as I judge the race.

In gate one is Dudley's Girl. As of June Week Four in Y16, this filly has one win, which came in an HoTY-level race last season. She is reasonably consistent and has three starts on the season - a second, a third and a fourth in the HoTY-level Coronation Stakes. Her last race was in May Week Two, and she placed second. It has been a month and a half since her last race. At this point in the season, she hasn't raced too much compared to the rest of the field. She runs as a front runner who seems to plant herself in a good position, waits and then accelerates to maintain the lead in the stretch.

In gate two is SmashDashing. He is the highest graded horse in the field, at grade three, but has only won once this season. He won a lot of races and participated at HoTY level as a juvenile, but appears to not be faring as well at three. However, his win was fairly recent, in May Week Three and at the track this race is at, and his last start was last week in the Boy's Party, an HoTY race that he placed second in. He clearly has a lot of back class - i.e., class built up from racing in high-level races. He is listed as a stalker but appears to run as a closer, waiting for the right moment to strike.

In gate three is Hot Looks. She has run six times this season and has not placed out of the top three. Her last win was in May Week Four and she placed third last time out. Her juvenile season was fairly good, with HoTY race appearances and even a win in the Remington Springboard Mile. She perhaps hasn't raced as much as SmashDashing, or at an equivalent level of competition, but she's consistent and classy. She just started racing consistently again in April, which explains her lack of starts compared to others her age. She's listed as versatile in her running style, but generally prefers to be near the pace unless the break goes badly.

In gate four is Ground Zero. He has three wins on the season and, like the rest of the field, is fairly consistent. His juvenile season appears light and unspectacular compared to the others, but as a three year old he has been doing excellently. Potentially, he is a late bloomer and is only now getting good. His last start was a third in the Saint Anne Derby over dirt. Though his win record is the best in the field, it is worth it to note that his wins have come at nine furlongs and above. Perhaps he is not as fast as others at seven furlongs, though of course he can run at that distance. Zero seems to like to hang around in the pack, waiting until the final turn to make his move.

If I was judging off of class, I would pick either SmashDashing or Hot Looks for the win, as they have the most HoTY experience. This judging style is viewed as fair because HoTY races are generally tougher than other races, and as horses run in them their class level subsequently increases. Against horses without that sort of experience, they are viewed as slightly sharper and more likely to score the win in an under-card race. However, take into account that relying solely on HoTY experience is a recipe for disaster. An HoTY performer could easily be defeated by a consistent under-card performer, such as Ground Zero. HoTY experience isn't everything - consistency in under-cards indicates readiness for HoTY competition and the ability to defeat such seasoned competition. Which brings me to my next point...

If a horse consistently does well, it only makes sense to expect their performance to continue being good. According to this perspective, Hot Looks and Ground Zero look like the best horses in the field. The pro of this is that your results would have an innate sense of fairness to them, due to the logical rationale I mentioned before. However, there is also a limit to this degree of realism. Sometimes, good horses throw in a bad race. They have an off day. An inconsistent horses places in the top three and pulls off wins, too - just not as often as other horses. Thus, don't make this perspective an absolute.

If a horse has a running style that gives them an advantage in a race, you might be able to lessen the importance of other factors and focus on that. For example - in this race, we have Dudley's Girl assuming the lead. Given Hot Looks' preferences despite her versatile running style, she might take up position just alongside Dudley's Girl. SmashDashing is probably going to be bringing up the rear, but not too far off the pace. Ground Zero will probably be somewhere in between all of these horses. Visualize the race in your head and imagine scenarios. Will Dudley's Girl be tired out by Hot Looks' pressure and not have enough to maintain her lead in the stretch? Will Hot Looks be tired out by trying to show Dudley's Girl she's the boss, leaving the race wide open for the other two? Will Ground Zero have too much fun being a social butterfly and forget that he's supposed to win the race? Will SmashDashing be too far back to make up the ground in time to score the victory, especially if the pace up front is fast?

There's a degree of creative license with employing this perspective. Here are two ways I can see this race being played out.

Dudley's Girl seems to be the type of front runner that breaks fast, forges clear, settles and then races hard for home. No horse is going to really go for the lead with her. I could see her opening up a three, four length gap with nobody for company. Ground Zero and Hot Looks will settle back, Hot Looks probably edging out Zero for second. SmashDashing will probably ride the rail a length behind them, biding his time. Given that the race is seven furlongs, it won't be too strenuous for Dudley's Girl to maintain her easy lead, and it could mean the other horses are playing catch-up. Dudley's Girl is comparatively fresher than the rest of the field, and she could run away with this if they don't catch up to her. Consider, though, that a victory by Dudley's Girl would definitely be an upset - she has fewer wins and less experience this season than the field. But in no way is it out of the cards, especially if the pace is to her liking. Thus, in this way, Dudley's Girl takes the win because nobody catches up to her in time. SmashDashing edges around the other two to place second, very close behind her and just narrowly missing out. It's close between the other two for third, but maybe Ground Zero traps Hot Looks on the rail and gives her nowhere to run, especially with Dudley's Girl likely very close to them but in front.

Another perspective is that Dudley's Girl does not get as far away as she should, or the others make their moves soon enough to carve into her lead. Hot Looks and Ground Zero bear down on her from the outside on the final turn. SmashDashing tries to move around them but finds himself blocked. His jockey, not wanting to get blocked in, checks him sharply and waits to swing around, going for it in the final stretch. Hot Looks and Ground Zero outgun Dudley's Girl, fighting for the lead, and now SmashDashing tries to go around them, playing catch-up. Potentially, he runs out of time and only manages to pass Dudley's Girl with a sudden charge, placing third. It's a race between Hot Looks and Ground Zero for the win, and perhaps Ground Zero edges her out.

The weakness of this perspective is that, if employed unevenly, the mid-packing or closing horse will always win in a field of front runners even if those front runners are actually better horses. This isn't really fair, even if it could happen. So, employ this perspective with realism and an eye for other factors as well.