In an effort to demystify the class that is prospect races, I thought I'd kind of give a rundown as to what they actually are, which seems to be something of a point of confusion, and how exactly I (personally) go about judging them. While each person judging has a bit different criteria, as with regular races, there are some basic guidelines that should apply across the board.

First and foremost, these are not actually races - Thoroughbreds, and other racing horses, do not race before the age of two. And while we start ours earlier than in real life (where 2yo races don't start until later in the year), we don't cross into the yearling years. These are also not simulation races, which would be a 'hypothetical' running of the race - that doesn't really fulfill a purpose, and it would also make the results more likely to mirror actual race results that they'll have as older horses. We don't want that.

What these races most closely simulate in real life is the analysis done by bloodstock agents on yearling horses to determine the likelihood of them being good racehorses based on pedigree and personality. They would also include conformation, but we don't have that ability. We take it a step further by knowing ahead of time what distances the horses will run as a racehorse, so we can determine how 'suited' the horse is based on their pedigree. These prospects can be very useful in determining which distance and surface a horse may be best suited to when they start racing. However, it is only a indicator, and often times horses take their own paths throughout their career.

So, since these are not actually races, things like racing style (when compared to other horses) don't really play a part, as they are not actually racing. But there are still a ton of indicators as to whether or not a horse will be good, and these are the traits I judge on, in the order of priority I would judge them:

1) Siblings of the horse in question have exceled at the same distance and surface as the prospect race (HOTY* winners preferred)

2) Siblings of the horse in question are HOTY* winners at different surfaces/distances

3) Parents themselves excelled at (were HOTY* winners at) the distance and surface

4) Parents were HOTY* winners at different distances and surfaces

5) Parents were able to run at the surface/distance

6) Depth of personality - while this is the last thing I look at, it should be noted that horses should have completed pages in order to be considered for high placings in a prospect. Some people judge personality more heavily than I do, and that's okay too!

These things can compound, ie. if a horse has two HOTY*-producing parents I'll likely place them over a horse that only has one HOTY* parent. This is why creates tend to do very poorly in prospects, as there is nothing there to tell you if the horse will be any good! It's up to the horse to prove its own way as a 2yo, and often they do very well. Basically what I'm saying is not every horse has a chance of doing well in a prospect, like they do in actual racing.

Note that I do not look at their previous 'prospect record', as each race is different and they will rank differently at each surface or distance. Often times prospects come down to nit-picking which distances they will likely be best at.

Also note you don't have to know anything ahead of time about any of the bloodlines - I go to their parent's pages and look at their offspring from there. It's easier to place a horse high in a prospect if that information is readily available, which is why I always suggest having links to parents active on their pages.

Now, with these things in mind, here's an example! I judged this week's Letmego Prospect, which is 11f on dirt. Here are my notes as I went through and judged:

Pursuit of War: By BHoF Akuma Battlecry, who produced numerous grade one HOTY* horses that won at this distance. Out of a relatively unproven HOTY*-winning mare.

Flightpath: Sire produced good HOTY* horse Key West. Dam is unproven and didn't have the best race record.

Inner Storm: Sire is a good HOTY* horse but has yet to truly prove himself as a sire. Dam produced good HOTY* horses Awestruck, Key West, and Charmed Weapon.

Bonsaia: Sire has produced a good HOTY* winner in Breaking Point, who prefers shorter distances than this. Dam currently has one good horse in Heart of Rio. This horse is also at the end of her preferred distance at 11f, and with the sire's progeny it would be more probable that this horse will excel in the 8-9 furlong range.

Running Through Fire: Full brother to Reflected In Water, who was a good HOTY* horse. Sire produced multiple good HOTY* horses that matched this distance and surface, dam has had the one HOTY* horse in Reflected In Water. However, it should be noted that 11 furlongs is at the very edge of the horse's preferred distance.

Authoritarian: Suited to the distance and surface, but as it is a created horse, there's no way to truly judge it without pedigree information unless the rest of the field is in a similar situation (again, some people put more emphasis on personality, but I believe (because of my roots in real life racing) that pedigree tells you much more about how a horse might perform than its personality!)

Given these criteria, some people would weight different things differently - does HOTY*-winners on both sides trump, or does having a BHoF sire? Honestly it depends on preference and the horses themselves. Here's how I placed them:

Letmego Prospect - 11F - P
WIN Pursuit of War
PLACE Inner Storm
SHOW Running Through Fire
fourth Bonsaia
fifth Flight Path
sixth Authoritarian

And there you have it! Some people spend more or less time judging these, but just keep in mind that this is not an actual race. Taking the shortcut of only looking at the personality and their 'record' in prospects isn't really doing the spirit of the thing justice. You might even learn to love it, and you'll learn a lot about the pedigrees around the site!

Happy prospecting!